Trump Figures It’s Now or Never

President Donald Trump’s threat Thursday to scuttle a short-term deal to keep the federal government open through the end of the year shocked the political establishment in both parties.
 
It shouldn’t be a surprise.
 
More than any other issue, Trump ran on stopping illegal immigration. And building a wall was the most identifiable piece of that agenda. (He also promised Mexico would pay for it, but that’s another matter).
 
Since becoming president, Trump has made basically no progress on building the wall. The government has commissioned prototypes of the wall. And Congress has coughed up a pittance, most of which has gone toward rebuilding existing fencing.
 
Each time Trump has reached an impasse, he has agreed to punt, delaying a showdown over the wall for the sake of avoiding a partial shutdown of the government.
 
Although kicking the can has gotten Trump no closer to the wall, he appeared willing to do so again earlier this week. But on Thursday, he tweeted that he would not accept a short-term funding measure without $5 billion to construct the wall.
 
The pronouncement caused angst among Republican senators. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) argued that Trump would be in a stronger position on the issue in February when the short-term funding would expire.
 
“I'm not sure what leverage the President thinks he has at this moment,” he said, according to CNN. “The way you create leverage is keep this issue alive and keep arguing why we need to secure the border."
 
That is sheer nonsense. Trump’s position will only weaken after the new year, when Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) takes the gavel as speaker of the House of Representatives. She has flatly rejected any deal involving the wall, which she has described as immoral.
 
For Trump, it’s now or never for a showdown.
 
As if to underscore that point, the House – still controlled by Republicans – voted after Trump’s declaration to pass a funding bill that includes $5 billion for the wall. That was something Pelosi confidently had predicted in a meeting with Trump earlier this month would not happen.
 
Trump crowed about that in a tweet late Thursday.
 
“Nancy does not have to apologize. All I want is GREAT BORDER SECURITY!” he wrote.
 
Trump’s earlier tweet suggested he feels he’d been had by congressional Republican leaders.
 
“When I begrudgingly signed the Omnibus Bill, I was promised the Wall and Border Security by leadership,” he wrote. “Would be done by end of year (NOW). It didn’t happen! We foolishly fight for Border Security for other countries - but not for our beloved U.S.A. Not good!”
 
Trump has the full support of advocates for tough border enforcement.
 
“Glad to see that the president isn't a surrender monkey after all,” tweeted Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies.
 
Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, urged Trump to force the government to shut down, if necessary.
 
“President Trump must stand firm and veto the continuing resolution, if it passes the House,” he said in a statement. “Failing to do so will be a complete abrogation of the federal government’s duty to secure our borders and a massive breach of the public trust.”
 
The odds are still against Trump. Despite Thursday’s victory in the House, the simple math is that border wall supporters do not have close to the 60 votes they need to break a Democratic filibuster. They might not even be able to muster a simple majority.
 
American voters are polarized over the wall, as well. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll taken earlier this month suggests that voters think Trump should compromise on the wall to avoid a shutdown. The margin was 57 percent to 36 percent.
 
But whatever the odds, they are better than they will be in February. Not a single House Democrat voted for the border security bill that passed the chamber Thursday. Pelosi likely will not even allow a vote on wall funding. And the odds will not be much better in the Senate, either, even with an increased Republican majority.
 
If Trump is going to take a stand for the wall, this is his last shot.