Here Is How the Shutdown Ends

UPDATE: President Donald Trump has agreed to reopen the government for three weeks, without and funding for his proposed border wall. 
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Original post:

A pair of votes in the Senate on Thursday highlighted the most likely path to the end of the record-long partial government shutdown – Republican capitulation.
 
With the dispute now stretching past the one-month mark, neither President Donald Trump nor Democratic leaders in Congress appear ready to give an inch over a proposed border wall.
 
That leaves Senate Republicans, many of whom never were crazy about the proposed wall in the first place. The longer the shutdown goes on, the more pressure will build on vulnerable Republicans in the Senate – particularly those who face potentially tough re-election contests next year or who come from Democratic-leaning states.
 
The first signs of those cracks appeared in a pair of votes Thursday to end the stalemate. One included money for the wall, while the other did not.
 
Both failed, but the momentum is on the Democrats’ side. Their bill attracted 52 “yes” votes. That included “ayes” from six Republicans – Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah).
 
The Republican proposal got only 50 votes, with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) the only Democrat to break ranks.
 
It seems unlikely Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will be able to pry away any more Democratic votes going forward. And even if they did, a House controlled by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is not going along.
 
On the other hand, Thursday’s vote likely is just the beginning for wavering Republicans.
 
The Republicans who voted with the Democrats on Thursday stressed the need for bipartisanship.
 
“Tennesseans elected me to make government work, not to shut it down,” Alexander tweeted. “I will continue working to re-open the government and get federal employees back to work as quickly as possible.”
 
Tweeted Collins: “This shutdown must come to an end. Today I voted twice to reopen government because it is my top priority.”
 
Gardner emphasized bipartisanship and “compromise,” as did Romney.
 
Murkowski focused on the pain caused by the shutdown.
 
“From individual industries such as aviation and fisheries to entire communities—Alaskans are facing widespread, detrimental impacts as a result of the partial government shutdown,” she tweeted. “@USCGmembers are still hard at work—maintaining national security and protecting life & property.”
 
How much longer the shutdown lasts is anyone’s guess. But how it ends is getting clearer. Adding a likely “yes” vote from Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who did not vote Thursday, would bring the total to 53. That means Democrats would need seven more votes to break a filibuster.
 
Possible candidates for breaking with the Republican majority include Sen. Pat Toomey, who barely won re-election in Pennsylvania in 2016 and whose state leans Democrat; Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), whose state has a growing number of Hispanics; and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va), a moderate whose state has a high number of federal workers.
 
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) hails from a state that increasingly has become competitive. He also has broken with Trump on some immigration issues. Count Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) as another moderate who comes from a competitive state. Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) represent states where re-election cannot be taken for granted.
 
That would be enough to send a bill to Trump’s desk. Although it would not be a veto-proof majority, it undoubtedly would turn up the temperature even higher.
 
The shutdown already has taken a toll on Trump’s standing with voters. His approval rating, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, is at 40.9 percent. His disapproval rating has risen sharply and currently sits near an all-time high of 55.7 percent.  
 
The more unpopular Trump gets, the more Republican lawmakers will look for cover.